Say I run a supercomputer computation on 100k cores for 4 hours on http://www.nersc.gov/users/computational-systems/edison/configuration, exchanging about 4 PB of data over the network and performing about 4 TB of I/O. The calculation is all integer, so the results are either right or wrong (no intermediate numerical errors).
Assuming the code is correct, I would like to estimate the probability that the computation is wrong due to a hardware failure. What is a good way to go about this? Are there good sources for the numbers required to make such an estimate?