What exactly happens in the case of equi-spaced points?
Why does increase in polynomial order cause the error to rise after a certain point?
This is similar to the Runge's phenomenon where, with equi-spaced nodes, the interpolation error goes to infinity with the increase of the polynomial degree, i.e. the number of points.
One of the roots of this problem can be found in the Lebesgue's constant as noted by @Subodh's comment to @Pedro answer. This constant relates the interpolation with the best approximation.
Some notations
We have a function $f \in C([a,b])$ to interpolate over the nodes $x_k$. In the Lagrange interpolation are defined the Lagrange polynomials:
$$
L_k(x) = \prod_{i=0, i\neq j}^{n}\frac{x-x_i}{x_k-x_i}
$$
with this is defined the interpolation polynomial $p_n \in P_n$ over the couples $(x_k, f(x_k))$ for light notation $(x_k, f_k)$
$$
p_n(x) = \sum_{k=0}^n f_kL_k(x)
$$
Now consider a perturbation over the data, this can be for example for rounding, so we have got $\tilde{f}_k$. With this the new polynomial $\tilde{p}_n$ is:
$$
\tilde{p}_n(x) = \sum_{k=0}^n \tilde{f}_k L_k(x)
$$
The error estimates are:
$$
p_n(x) - \tilde{p}_n(x) = \sum_{k=0}^n (f_k - \tilde{f}_k) L_k(x)
$$
$$
| p_n(x) - \tilde{p}_n(x) | \leq \sum_{k=0}^n |f_k - \tilde{f}_k| |L_k(x)|
\leq \left ( \max_k |f_k - \tilde{f}_k| \right) \sum_{k=0}^n |L_k(x)|
$$
Now it is possible define the Lebesgue's constant $\Lambda_n$ as:
$$
\Lambda_n = \max_{x \in [a,b]} \sum_{k=0}^n |L_k(x)|
$$
With this the final estimates is:
$$
|| p_n - \tilde{p}_n ||_{\infty} \leq \left ( \max_k |f_k - \tilde{f}_k| \right) \Lambda_n
$$
(marginal note, we look only $\infty$ norm also because we are over a space of finite measure so $L^{\infty} \subseteq \dots \subseteq L^1 $)
From the above calculation we have got that $\Lambda_n$ is:
- independent from the date:
- depends only from the nodes distribution;
- an indicator of stability (the smaller it is, the better it is).
It is also the norm of the interpolation operator respect the
$|| \cdot||_\infty$ norm.
Withe the follow theorem we con have got an estimate of the interpolation error with the Lebesgue's constant:
Let $f$ and $p_n$ as above we have
$$ || f - p_n ||_{\infty} \leq (1 + \Lambda_n) d_n(f) $$
where
$$ d_n(f) = \inf_{q_n \in P_n} || f - q_n ||_{\infty} $$
is the error by the best uniform approximation polynomial
I.e. if $\Lambda_n$ is small the error of the interpolation is not far from the error of the best uniform approximation and the theorem compares the interpolation error with the smallest possible error which is the error of best uniform approximation.
For this the behavior of the interpolation depends by the nodes distribution.
There is a lower bounds about $\Lambda_n$ that given a node distribution exist a constant $c$ such that:
$$ \Lambda_n \geq \frac{2}{\pi} \log(n) - c $$
so the constant grows, but how it grow is importan.
For equi-spaced nodes
$$\Lambda_n \approx \frac{2^{n+1}}{en \log(n)} $$
I omitted some details, but we see that the grow is exponential.
For Chebyshev nodes
$$\Lambda_n \leq \frac{2}{\pi} \log(n) + 4 $$
also here I omitted some details, there are more accurate and complicate estimate. See [1] for more details.
Note that nodes of Chebyshev family have got logarithmic grow and from the previous estimates is near the best you can obtain.
For other nodes distributions see for example table 1 of this article.
There are a lot of reference on book about interpolation.
On-line these slides are nice as resume.
Also this open article ([1])
A Numerical Seven Grids Interpolation Comparison of for polynomial on the Interval for various comparisons.